The Economist’s Intelligence Unit tried to assess which country gave
its children the best chance of a happy, safe and prosperous life.
"Being rich helps more than anything else," they write,
"but it is not all that counts; things like crime, trust in public
institutions and the health of family life matter too." The final
measure factors in everything from income to geography to demography.
When all is said and done, Switzerland leads the list, with Australia
and Norway close behind. The United States tied with Germany for 16th
place.
Warren Buffett, probably the world’s most successful investor, has
said that anything good that happened to him could be traced back to the
fact that he was born in the right country, the United States, at the
right time (1930). A quarter of a century ago, when The World in 1988
light-heartedly ranked 50 countries according to where would be the
best place to be born in 1988, America indeed came top. But which
country will be the best for a baby born in 2013?
To answer this, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a sister company of The Economist,
has this time turned deadly serious. It earnestly attempts to measure
which country will provide the best opportunities for a healthy, safe
and prosperous life in the years ahead.
Its quality-of-life
index links the results of subjective life-satisfaction surveys—how
happy people say they are—to objective determinants of the quality of
life across countries. Being rich helps more than anything else, but it
is not all that counts; things like crime, trust in public institutions
and the health of family life matter too. In all, the index takes 11
statistically significant indicators into account. They are a mixed
bunch: some are fixed factors, such as geography; others change only
very slowly over time (demography, many social and cultural
characteristics); and some factors depend on policies and the state of
the world economy.
A forward-looking element comes into play, too. Although many of
the drivers of the quality of life are slow-changing, for this ranking
some variables, such as income per head, need to be forecast. We use the
EIU’s economic forecasts to 2030, which is roughly when children born
in 2013 will reach adulthood.
Despite the global economic crisis, times have in certain respects
never been so good. Output growth rates have been declining across the
world, but income levels are at or near historic highs. Life expectancy
continues to increase steadily and political freedoms have spread across
the globe, most recently in north Africa and the Middle East. In other
ways, however, the crisis has left a deep imprint—in the euro zone, but
also elsewhere—particularly on unemployment and personal security. In
doing so, it has eroded both family and community life.
Where to be born in 1988
What does all this, and likely developments in the years to come,
mean for where a baby might be luckiest to be born in 2013? After
crunching its numbers, the EIU has Switzerland comfortably in the top
spot, with Australia second.
Small economies dominate the top
ten. Half of these are European, but only one, the Netherlands, is from
the euro zone. The Nordic countries shine, whereas the crisis-ridden
south of Europe (Greece, Portugal and Spain) lags behind despite the
advantage of a favourable climate. The largest European economies
(Germany, France and Britain) do not do particularly well.
America,
where babies will inherit the large debts of the boomer generation,
languishes back in 16th place. Despite their economic dynamism, none of
the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) scores
impressively. Among the 80 countries covered, Nigeria comes last: it is
the worst place for a baby to enter the world in 2013.
Boring is best
Quibblers
will, of course, find more holes in all this than there are in a chunk
of Swiss cheese. America was helped to the top spot back in 1988 by the
inclusion in the ranking of a “philistine factor” (for cultural poverty)
and a “yawn index” (the degree to which a country might, despite all
its virtues, be irredeemably boring). Switzerland scored terribly on
both counts. In the film “The Third Man”, Orson Welles’s character, the
rogue Harry Lime, famously says that Italy for 30 years had war, terror
and murder under the Borgias but in that time produced Michelangelo,
Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance; Switzerland had 500 years of
peace and democracy—and produced the cuckoo clock.
However,
there is surely a lot to be said for boring stability in today’s (and no
doubt tomorrow’s) uncertain times. A description of the methodology is
available here: food for debate all the way from Lucerne to Lagos.